A Bold but Foolish Move? The NDP Ends Its Support for the Trudeau Liberals
Jagmeet Singh’s Decision to End the Confidence and Supply Agreement May Well Backfire on the NDP.
Jagmeet Singh’s decision to end the Confidence and Supply Agreement with the governing Trudeau Liberals marks a pivotal moment in the Canadian political climate.
Granted, this move marks a bold step towards differentiating the New Democrats from the unpopular Liberals. Yet, it raises serious questions about whether this gamble could ultimately harm the New Democratic Party’s standing in the polls. Let me explain.
First, it's important to provide context for the now-defunct agreement. In March 2022, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals struck a deal with Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats, securing the NDP’s support on confidence matters in exchange for advancing key progressive legislation, such as implementing dental care and pharmacare.
Since then, with the support of the NDP, the Liberals have successfully enacted key legislative reforms. Childcare has become significantly more affordable for Canadian families, now capped at $10 per day. Additionally, 2.3 million uninsured Canadians have gained access to dental coverage, and prescription drug costs have been capped, ensuring that Canadians can more easily afford the medications they need.
So, let’s be frank with ourselves. Mr. Singh’s decision to end his party’s agreement comes at the dawn of two unfortunate political realities. His party is not doing well in the polls, even despite a collapse of support for the Liberal Party of Canada.
Historically, the New Democrats have positioned themselves as the left-wing alternative to the Liberals, if the latter’s support was stagnating, as seen during the 2011 Orange Wave under Jack Layton. And yet, that dynamic certainly isn’t playing out, this time around.
With the broader polling trends looking grim for both the Liberals and the NDP, these upcoming by-elections could serve as critical tests for Jagmeet Singh and Justin Trudeau’s leadership and the future direction of their parties. The two ridings—Elmwood-Transcona and Lasalle-Émard-Verdun—offer a glimpse into whether the NDP can regain ground or if their political standing will erode further.
What happens in these races will likely signal whether Singh's bold decision to end the Confidence and Supply Agreement was a strategic masterstroke or a major miscalculation.
The reality is simple. There are two federal by-elections taking place on September 16th. The two ridings—Elmwood-Transcona, a long-standing NDP stronghold, and Lasalle-Émard-Verdun, formerly held by Liberal ex-Justice Minister David Lametti and also a Liberal stronghold—are now facing significant upheaval.
In Lasalle-Émard-Verdun, the NDP is fielding a well-known Montreal City Councillor, Craig Sauvé, in a bid to unseat the Liberals, though a victory seems unlikely.
Meanwhile, in Manitoba's Elmwood-Transcona, the NDP is at risk of losing its grip to the Conservatives, a defeat that could not only weaken the party but potentially end Jagmeet Singh’s political career, at least as party leader.
If you’re starting to think his political decision makes sense—it doesn’t. See, Mr. Singh and his advisors failed to calculate one thing: they’ve been supporting the Liberals for the past two years and are the proponents of the very policies that the Liberals have enacted.
From an outsider’s perspective, Canada’s left-wing party and its leader appear to have abandoned the progressive values and policies they once advocated—policies designed to support everyday working and middle-class Canadians, at the request of the Conservative Party leader, Pierre Poilievre.
Now, he and his party look like hypocrites and sellouts who’ve turned their backs on the very policies they championed—the very ideals of their party.
And just a few days prior, Pierre Poilievre dubbed Jagmeet Singh as “Sellout Singh.” It looks like he was right… Singh sold out on every single progressive policy at the expense of Canadians—for political gain.
Inadvertently, Singh’s decision could end up benefiting the Trudeau Liberals. Despite their historically low polling numbers, Justin Trudeau now has an opportunity to paint the NDP as sellouts who, by abandoning the agreement, are indirectly supporting the Conservative agenda. This creates an opening for Trudeau to reframe the narrative, positioning the Liberals as the true defenders of progressive values and the middle class.
By doing so, he can portray his government as the only viable alternative to the Conservatives, especially as the NDP’s credibility takes a hit. And with a Conservative government looming—strategic voting tends to favour the Liberals over the New Democrats, on the left.
He could highlight the Liberals' success in delivering key policies like affordable childcare and dental care while continuing to champion broader social programs.
This narrative may resonate with voters who feel let down by the NDP’s withdrawal from the agreement and other disillusioned voters, allowing the Prime Minister to recast his party as the historical “Broad Tent.”
Trudeau sighs in relief. Poilievre rejoices. Singh miscalculates.
