16 September marks the end of the Justin Trudeau era. Not with a bang, but a whimper. If the Toronto by-election of this summer was almost a self-answering question, then last week’s Verdun-LaSalle-Émard by-election provided the concluding note: a plaintive, if anticipated, sigh.
Few Liberals see Trudeau in their party’s future. A future made even more dreary by the approaching day when they will lose power. Perhaps with a no-confidence vote in the coming weeks. Maybe in the spring. But the party of Wilfrid Laurier, once thought to be Canada’s natural leader, will be left out of power by the next election.
It also marks the end of the Jagmeet Singh era. While their parliamentary alliance lasted, he did his best to pry what he could out of the Liberals’ hands. Did he get more than he gave up? Not everyone is sure the legislative gains were worth the NDP’s loss of street cred. Poll numbers are down. In one province, they are in single digits. The party’s fortunes, with Singh at its helm, are in serious doubt. He is not likely to lead it past the next election.
And yet, our problems go far beyond leadership. What Canadians want, and what our political parties offer, are wildly disconnected. In order to remain relevant, they have some serious re-thinking to do.
The Liberals have succeeded, through their waffling on housing, defense, foreign policy and immigration to displease, alienate and seriously annoy a very large chunk of the Canadian electorate – much of it, their own base. Their inaction on a housing crisis that has newly homeless elderly sleeping in their cars, and that stretches from coast to coast, is breathtaking. Their failure to procure the Armed Forces’ needs or to arm our men and women in uniform, amounts to a failure to defend our country. Their reluctance to subject our immigration policy to the deep review all of Canada is calling for, means a continued strain on our hospitals, schools and, as mentioned above, housing. Politically, it reveals a level of official tone-deafness unworthy of a democracy.
The party founded by Tommy Douglas also is dealing with more than leadership issues. Something far more profound, and difficult to replace, has suffered: their reputation. Canada’s third party used to stand tall as the solution from the Left. That vision, unrenewed, now seems worn. This, despite a highly favourable political landscape. Over the course of the past 12 months, Canada has seen a record number of strikes and of Canadian families touched by striking members. Alas, the NDP has failed to capitalize on a golden opportunity to show solidarity and leadership.
As for the Conservatives, they are political warriors. They have effectively dug trenches across our electoral map, and may well emerge as the prevalent force. Their messaging is beyond effective, and has brought them within shouting distance of electoral success. If you wish to know who not to vote for, and what policies not to want for your country, the Conservatives will tell you. No need to think about it.
And that is the problem. They may well form the next government of Canada. But if they do, they will then have a far greater set of challenges to deal with: an unhoused segment of the population, an undefended country and a health-care system on the verge of collapse. Climate change that is affecting everyone, deniers and non-deniers alike.
To these and other problems, the Conservatives have been long on platitudes but chillingly short on policy. Canadians, with our high level of education, can tell the difference. I would warn Mr. Poilievre: be careful what you wish for. Mr. Trudeau’s maladroitness and ineptitude have been gifts to you as leader of the opposition. They have provided you with juicy targets for your well-aimed, well-timed and well-sharpened barbs. But what happens when the Liberals have a new leader, one who can propose solutions that resonate, policy that is made for the 21st century, and initiatives that tackle our problems head-on? When that happens, you will need a completely new playlist. Because the music a you are playing now is gothic and apocalyptic. Your theme is nuclear winter. What Canadians want, and need, and most certainly deserve to hear, is a message of hope.