Liberal Bastion Collapses: The Implications for the Next Federal Election
What This By-Election Loss Signals for Justin Trudeau's Leadership and the Political Future of the Federal Liberals in the 2025 Federal Election.
Lasalle-Émard-Verdun has been a Liberal stronghold since its conception. Surprisingly or not, this riding, held by former Minister of Justice David Lametti and former Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin, has fallen to the Bloc Quebeçois.
Before proceeding, it's important to note that the Bloc Québécois is a separatist party that advocates for Quebec's independence and exclusively represents Quebec's interests in the Canadian House of Commons.
Simply put, this loss has shaken the foundational elements of the Liberal Party of Canada, the leadership of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and has raised important questions regarding the Federal Liberals’ future in light of the next federal election scheduled for September 2025.
First, it’s worth noting that the governing Liberals have faced significant unpopularity in public opinion polls since last year. This growing discontent has been a persistent challenge for Justin Trudeau’s party as it struggles to regain voters’ confidence.
Until Monday’s devastating loss, the Liberals had remained highly competitive in Quebec, especially in their strongholds throughout the Greater Montreal Area. If a safe Liberal seat like Lasalle-Émard-Verdun can fall, it signals that every seat the party holds may be up for grabs in the next general election. Admittedly, I may be overstating the situation, as a by-election with roughly 40 percent voter turnout isn't necessarily indicative of a general election, where turnout usually reaches as high as 70 percent. Nevertheless, the Liberals have soul-searching to do and they’ve got some time.
In June, the Liberals suffered a significant loss in another key stronghold: Toronto Saint-Paul’s, previously held by former Cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett. The loss of these strongholds, one in Montreal and the other in Toronto—both historically Liberal strongholds—represents a serious loss of support for the government and the Prime Minister.
The Liberal caucus has remained strikingly quiet in the aftermath of the disappointing by-election loss, which many pundits and analysts view not as a rejection of Liberal policies or programs, but as a repudiation of Justin Trudeau’s leadership. In the face of losing a stronghold and experiencing a significant vote collapse in the Elmwood-Transcona riding, one would expect the party’s caucus to rise up against the Prime Minister’s leadership.
Despite this loss, Justin Trudeau has remained steadfast in his quest to lead the Liberal Party of Canada into the next federal election and believes that he is the best choice to do so.
However, the governing party has a significant opportunity to refocus their efforts and realign themselves with the political center.
For the last two years, the Liberals have been bound by a confidence and supply agreement with the New Democratic Party of Canada—which resulted in NDP support for key confidence votes in exchange for the proposal of progressive policies such as dental care, childcare, and pharmacare.
This agreement is no more, with Jagmeet Singh, the leader of the NDP, “ripping up the agreement,” leaving the Liberals in a true minority government. Granted, the policies passed were popular and received broad support and yet bread-and-butter issues such as inflation and housing dominated the headlines.
No longer bound by this left-leaning agreement, inflation cooling to the Bank of Canada’s target level of 2 percent, gas down to 1.39 per liter in some parts of Montreal, and new mortgage rules tailored to the average Canadian, the Liberals have a strong chance to rebuild their voting coalition and build support before the next federal election.
As mentioned previously, the Liberals have been experiencing a downturn in polling, with many analysts attributing this decline more to a negative perception of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau than to the party's policies themselves. While most Canadians express a desire to avoid a Conservative government, they are grappling with what some describe as "Trudeau fatigue." This sentiment reflects growing disillusionment with the Prime Minister's leadership style and decision-making, overshadowing the Liberal Party’s agenda and leaving voters in search of renewed leadership without necessarily wanting to shift to a Conservative alternative.
A significant policy shift toward centrist issues—such as housing, affordability, and inflation—could greatly enhance the Liberal Party's appeal in the current political climate. By addressing pressing concerns like the new mortgage rules, lowering interest rates, and targeting inflation rates down to 2%, the Liberals could resonate more with voters who are feeling the financial pinch. Coupled with the introduction of a new Liberal leader, this strategic pivot could revitalize the party's image and help them regain support among Canadians, making them far more competitive than they currently are in the political landscape.
To conclude, the recent losses in traditionally Liberal strongholds such as Lasalle-Émard-Verdun and Toronto Saint-Paul’s serve as a clear wake-up call for the governing Liberals. These significant defeats highlight the urgent need for introspection and strategic recalibration within the Liberal party; particularly as the public’s sentiment increasingly reflects dissatisfaction with Justin Trudeau.
As the Liberals navigate this challenging landscape, they have a unique opportunity to pivot towards centrist issues—focusing on housing, affordability, and inflation—that resonate with Canadians’ immediate concerns. With the confidence and supply agreement with the NDP now dissolved, the Liberals can realign their policies to appeal to a broader base, potentially reigniting voter support as they head into the next federal election.
Time will tell if the Liberals can plug all the holes in their sinking ship. I believe they can. Justin Trudeau has guided the party to three consecutive election victories, and with a significant shift in policy and the introduction of a new leader, the governing party could very well find a path to success once again.