Trudeau Steps Down: The End of an Era for Canada's Liberals
Amid Trudeau’s Departure, Liberals Show Signs of Rebound in the Polls and a Chance to Hold Off Trump
Justin Trudeau’s unexpected resignation has sent shockwaves through the Canadian political landscape, marking the end of an era for the Liberal Party. Once struggling with dismal polling numbers, the Liberals now appear to be regaining ground in the wake of his departure, sparking renewed hope for their future. However, this moment of revival also raises critical questions about the party’s direction and its ability to rebuild trust with voters.
For months, Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party have dominated the polls, leading the Liberals by an overwhelming 25 to 26 points. This near-insurmountable gap underscored the party’s struggles in the late Trudeau era. However, with Trudeau’s departure, the Liberals now have a slim but difficult path to recovery.
Recent polling offers mixed signals. EKOS places the Liberals in the low 30s, while other pollsters still have them in the mid-20s, with Conservatives maintaining a lead in the high 30s to low 40s. While the Liberals remain far from competitive, the race is tightening. The question is: to what extent?
At the same time, Canada faces mounting external pressure, particularly from Donald Trump, the newly re-elected U.S. President. Trump has repeatedly threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, a move that would spark a damaging trade war. Such tariffs would hurt both countries—especially the U.S., which relies on Canada for 60% of its heavy crude oil imports, 80% of its softwood lumber, and nearly 90% of its electricity imports, all critical resources for its economy, particularly in the Northeastern states.
Domestically, Trudeau’s resignation has left a leadership void, creating uncertainty within the Liberal Party. This has allowed figures like Ontario Premier Doug Ford to step into the spotlight. As Chair of the Council of the First Ministers, Ford has positioned himself as a decisive leader, filling the gap left by the Liberals’ internal turmoil.
However, a new Mainstreet Research poll suggests a shift. Over the weekend, their Ontario-specific poll showed Ford’s Progressive Conservatives losing ground to the Ontario Liberals. Additionally, for the first time in a year, federal Liberals are leading in Ontario, erasing a staggering 25-point deficit. Polling trends indicate a possible realignment, largely fueled by Trudeau’s anticipated departure and Trump’s aggressive stance toward America’s allies, which has prompted Canadians to rethink their political and diplomatic future.
Yesterday afternoon, President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on all Canadian and Mexican imports, imposing a 25% levy on most goods and a 10% tariff specifically on Canadian energy. In response, outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau alongside Finance Minister Dominic Leblanc and Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly, delivered a firm countermeasure, including retaliatory tariffs and a coordinated provincial effort to ban American liquor from Crown corporation liquor commissions. Additionally, government agencies will halt procurement from U.S. suppliers, redirecting their purchases to alternative markets in a clear stand against American economic aggression.
At this critical juncture, Canada must take decisive action to secure its economic and strategic future. This includes ramping up military recruitment, retaining our Halifax-class frigates for coastal defense rather than retiring them upon the arrival of 12 new destroyers, and significantly expanding our natural resource industries—most notably by building the Energy East pipeline. Canada must also seriously pursue CANZUK negotiations, strengthen trade ties with Europe and Commonwealth allies, and develop a more diversified, resilient international trade network.
(Oh) Canada stands at a crossroads. The decisions we make now—on trade, defense, and diplomacy—will define our nation's future. Stay tuned for my next article, where I’ll explore these critical issues in greater depth.